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07/02/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen were in Calgary Flames uniforms, it seems management, fans or the players themselves, couldn't leave town fast enough.
Times change, especially when your former team may be the only one courting you. And so we have the slightly odd sight of Calgary general manager Darryl Sutter signing Tanguay to a one-year deal and Jokinen to a two-year deal on the opening day of free agency in the NHL.
Tanguay, 30, had a career-high 81 points (22 goals, 59 assists) in 2006-07 as a member of the Flames. In the last three seasons - one each with Calgary, Montreal and Tampa Bay - Tanguay's production has slipped considerably. He had 10 goals and 37 points last season for the Lightning. Sutter is hoping Tanguay and Jarome Iglinla can reignite the magic.
Jokinen, 31, played most of last season in Calgary before being shipped off to Broadway in February. In 26 games with the New York Rangers, Jokinen was a bit of a bust, with four goals and 11 assists. In 75 games, with Calgary over parts of last season and 2008-09, the veteran Finn wasn't bad, notching 19 goals and 31 assists.
It's nowhere near his career high of 91 points (39 goals, 52 assists) in 2006-07 with Florida, but the Flames can use all the offence they can get after posting a league-worst 204 goals last season, or 2.49 goals per game.
The Flames also signed forwards Tim Jackman and Raitis Ivanans. Jackman, 28, had four goals, nine points and 98 penalty minutes in 54 games with the New York Islanders last season. Ivanans, 31, spent the last four seasons as the Los Angeles Kings' enforcer, but had no points and 136 PIMs in 61 games last season.
Other Canadian teams made a splash, too, in a busy week of signings, trades, drafts and general house cleaning.
The Ottawa Senators went for offensive finesse on the back end instead of bone-jarring body checks by signing veteran blue-liner Sergei Gonchar to a three-year deal and watching Anton Volchenkov sign with the New Jersey Devils. Gonchar is 36 and has a lot of mileage on him, but he has a deadly accurate shot and few can compare when it comes to producing points from the point and being the quarterback on a power play.
Vancouver signed two-way forward Manny Malhotra to a three-year contract as well as inking forwards Joel Perrault and Jeff Tambellini. The big deal for the Canucks, however, was signing defenseman Dan Hamhuis to a six-year contract.
The 27-year-old has played all six of his NHL seasons in Nashville. More importantly, Hamhuis has missed only nine games during that time. This durability is important for a Vancouver blue line that was devastated by injuries all season.
There also is a lot to look forward to in Edmonton in 2010-11: No. 1 overall draft pick Taylor Hall will be given every chance to make the team; speedster Jordan Eberle is on the verge of cracking the roster; Ales Hemsky will be healthy (for at least one shift); and free-agent defenseman Kurtis Foster will add some depth to the blue line.
The Oilers also acquired defenseman Jim Vandermeer from the Phoenix Coyotes for forward Patrick O'Sullivan, which is not a bad thing. The Oilers have lots of smallish forwards and need some beefing up on the blue line.
The Oilers lost some grit when injury-plagued captain Ethan Moreau was picked up on waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets. It was a bit of an inglorious end for the 34-year-old winger who has led the team in injuries and dirty work for years.
Toronto added some Stanley Cup grit with the acquisition of Kris Versteeg from the Chicago Blackhawks (along with prospect Bill Sweatt). Versteeg has scored 20 or more goals in each of the past two seasons. Going to Chicago were Viktor Stalberg and QMJHL forward prospects Chris DiDomenico and Philippe Paradis.
The Leafs also got more truculent by signing gritty forward Colby Armstrong to a three-year deal. Armstrong had 15 goals and 29 points in 79 games for the Atlanta Thrashers last season.
Montreal found two low-cost backups to Carey Price after shipping playoff savior Jaroslav Halak to the St. Louis Blues last month by signing goalies Alex Auld and Curtis Sanford to one-year deals. The Habs also signed forward Dustin Boyd to a one-year contract. The former Flame and Nashville Predator is a decent third- or fourth-liner.
<< Okada steps down as Japan coach
Tokyo, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Japan coach Takeshi Okada has stepped down as
manager following the team's exit from the FIFA World Cup on Tuesday.
Okada guided Japan through the group stage, but the Samurai Blue lost in the
opening round
<< Celtics sign first-round pick Bradley
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics have signed guard Avery
Bradley, their first-round pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. Terms of the deal were
not disclosed.
The Celtics took Bradley 19th overall in the draft after he played
<< Rays lefty Price goes for 12th win in Twin Cities
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once the owners of the best record in baseball, the Rays
haven't won three straight games since early June. Joe Maddon's ballclub has
to like its chances of reaching that mark tonight, when David Price goes for
his 12
<< Berdych beats Djokovic to reach Wimbledon final
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Czech Tomas Berdych upended third-
seeded Serbian star Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon on Friday to reach his first
career Grand Slam final.
The 12th-seeded Berdych ousted the former Australian Open champi
Report: Suns sign Frye, Warrick >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amare Stoudemire's days in Phoenix appear to
be numbered, as the Phoenix Suns have reportedly re-signed forward Channing
Frye and added free agent Hakim Warrick to the frontcourt.
Per a report by the A
Oilers re-sign Strudwick >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Oilers came to terms with
defenseman Jason Strudwick on a one-year contract Friday.
Strudwick, who turns 35 on July 17, played in 72 games with the Oilers last
season -- his second in
Argentina, Germany ready to move war onto the pitch >>
Cape Town, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Argentina and Germany reignited a
dormant rivalry four years ago in a World Cup quarterfinal that ended with a
melee, and they meet again in the final eight Saturday at Green Point Stadium
in what
Paraguay will have trouble stopping Spain >>
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain coach Vincente del Bosque
admitted a few days ago "it's difficult to stop us" when we're in top form, so
Paraguay faces a huge challenge Saturday in the FIFA World Cup quarterfinals.
Spain
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
The 2008 NFL betting lines season is almost upon us! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join sportbook today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLIII and beyond!
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